China’s rapid push into humanoid robotics one of the world’s fastest-growing tech sectors has triggered an unusual government warning. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s top economic planning body, has cautioned that the industry may be expanding too quickly and risks entering a speculative bubble. The alert comes as China races to become the global leader in next-generation robotics, a field Elon Musk previously said could see China dominate.
According to NDRC spokeswoman Li Chao, the government is concerned that development speed is outpacing innovation. More than 150 companies are now producing humanoid robots, including many startups and firms from unrelated fields. As a result, markets are seeing “highly repetitive products,” and investment is flowing faster than proven real-world use cases. This pattern echoes past tech boom-and-bust cycles in China, including bike-sharing and semiconductor speculation.
Despite the warning, humanoid robotics remains one of China’s highest strategic priorities and is classified under the national “embodied intelligence” category one of six key growth pillars through 2030.
China is expected to manufacture more than 10,000 humanoid robots this year, representing over half of global production. Long-term forecasts estimate the humanoid robotics sector could reach a value of $7 trillion by 2050 as robots transition from industrial testing environments to everyday applications in manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, and even domestic use.
To prevent instability, Beijing plans several regulatory interventions. These include policies to encourage consolidation among companies, the creation of clearer rules for market entry and exit, and government-backed support for core technologies such as sensors, AI learning models, and dexterous robotic actuators. The NDRC will also promote standardized testing and training infrastructure to ensure product quality and accelerate commercial readiness.
The warning also connects to concerns raised by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, whose company is actively developing its Optimus humanoid robot. Musk previously stated that while he believes Tesla currently leads the field, he is “concerned that the next nine companies will be from China” due to the country’s speed and scale. With companies like UBTech already deploying robots in factories including those supplying global brands like Foxconn his prediction may be unfolding.
As China accelerates its pursuit of humanoid robotics dominance, the key challenge will be balancing innovation with sustainable, meaningful progress before growth becomes unsustainable hype.
